Virgil van Dijk captains a Netherlands squad that has been hit by its own injury news — Xavi Simons (ruptured ACL in April) and Jurriën Timber are both absent — but still carries enough quality to be considered Group F's clear favourite. Cody Gakpo, Ryan Gravenberch, and Tijjani Reijnders form a Liverpool-heavy core that gives Ronald Koeman's side Premier League rhythm and intensity. The Dutch have not won a World Cup since never. They have reached the final once, in 2010. They carry that particular Dutch footballing melancholy as a permanent atmospheric condition.
Japan, meanwhile, arrive missing their two best wide players and are now entirely dependent on Takefusa Kubo — Real Sociedad's most creative force, described by La Liga observers as one of the most technically gifted wingers in Spain. Japan's pressing game under Hajime Moriyasu is legendary — they won their 2022 group ahead of Germany and Spain — but Mitoma and Minamino were central to that counter-attacking machine. Veteran Yuto Nagatomo will make history as the first Asian player to appear at five different World Cups tonight, which is the kind of milestone that makes you stop and consider what longevity in football actually means.
Without Simons, who was their creative fulcrum, Reijnders steps up to that number ten role. Gakpo at Liverpool this season was inconsistent but has the tournament DNA of a player who rises when it matters. Van Dijk's leadership in a major tournament is the foundation on which the Dutch build. They're not invincible — the Simons loss is genuinely damaging — but they're better than anyone else in Group F.
Kubo carries Japan's attacking ambition almost entirely alone now. The Real Sociedad winger is brilliant — technically sophisticated, creative, and capable of the kind of individual moment that changes matches — but he cannot replace two injured players simultaneously. Japan's pressing system will still work; their defensive structure will still be excellent. But they needed Mitoma's direct running and Minamino's finishing. Both are at home. This is a significant problem.
Gakpo scores — he always does in major tournaments — and a second comes from a Dutch set piece that van Dijk probably wins with his head from twelve yards. Japan's goal comes from Kubo doing something brilliant in the 73rd minute that temporarily makes you think a famous upset is possible. It isn't. But it's close enough to be genuinely nerve-wracking for twenty minutes. Netherlands win 2–1 and the Galáctico respects the contest.
Japan Without Mitoma and Minamino Is Like Brazil Without Vinícius, Except Brazil Still Has Raphinha. Japan's counter-attacking system was built around wide players who could convert pressing wins into goals. Both of their best examples of this are watching from home. Kubo is extraordinary. He is not two players. Tonight, he needs to be.
Yuto Nagatomo's Fifth World Cup Is the Most Quietly Extraordinary Storyline of the Tournament's Opening Weekend. He is 39 years old. He has played in South Africa, Brazil, Russia, Qatar. Now Texas. Not every story needs to be the loudest one to be the most meaningful. The Galáctico raises his tea from the couch in Nagatomo's general direction.
The Dutch Will Make This Harder Than It Needs to Be and Everyone in the Netherlands Will Act Surprised. This is the eternal Dutch condition. They have a squad with legitimate talent. They will manufacture exactly one moment of pure chaos — a missed sitter, a Gakpo stumble, a van Dijk aerial duel that ends with the ball hitting the bar — before winning professionally. 2–1. Comfortable in the end. Stressful in the middle. Very Dutch.