The Last Dance Meets Three Nations Chasing a First
Group G is a genuine clash of eras and ambitions. Belgium arrive with the last embers of their golden generation — De Bruyne, Courtois, and Lukaku, all into their 30s, almost certainly playing in their final World Cup together. Opposite them stand three nations who have collectively never advanced from a World Cup group stage: Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand. One of these three is going to make history. The only question is which.
Egypt arrive with the continent's biggest individual star in Mohamed Salah, who will captain the side and is sitting just two goals shy of Egypt's all-time scoring record. Iran bring the experienced Mehdi Taremi, fresh off a 10-goal qualifying campaign, leading a squad that controversially omitted Sardar Azmoun. New Zealand, the lowest-ranked side in the entire 48-team field at 85th in the world, arrive via Oceania's historic first direct World Cup berth, built around Nottingham Forest captain Chris Wood. Belgium open the tournament against Egypt in Seattle on June 15 — De Bruyne vs Salah — in what may be the must-watch fixture of the entire opening round.
The Galáctico's Verdict: Belgium top the group on pure squad quality, even with question marks over Lukaku's match sharpness and De Bruyne's club form. Egypt edge second — Salah's quality and a settled spine give them the platform to finally break their group-stage hoodoo. Iran push hard for that breakthrough but fall just short in third, eliminated on goal difference. New Zealand compete with heart, take a point somewhere, and head home with their reputation enhanced rather than diminished.
The match that defines the group is Belgium vs Egypt on Matchday 1 in Seattle — De Bruyne's last World Cup curtain-raiser against Salah's best chance yet to drag Egypt into the knockout rounds for the first time in the country's history.
LUKAKU RETURNS WITH A GOAL IN FINAL WARM-UP: Romelu Lukaku scored in Belgium's 2-0 send-off win over Croatia on June 2 — his first international goal in over a year — easing some (not all) of the fitness concerns after a injury-disrupted season at Napoli that limited him to seven appearances and a single goal across all competitions.
Rudi Garcia named his 26-man squad on May 15 keeping faith with the survivors of Belgium's celebrated golden generation. Kevin De Bruyne, Thibaut Courtois, and Romelu Lukaku — the last three remaining members of the side that reached the 2018 semi-finals — headline a roster blending youth with experience for what is widely assumed to be their final World Cup appearance together. De Bruyne, now 34 and yet to determine his future beyond his expiring Napoli contract, remains the creative engine. Courtois, at 34, is still regarded as among the finest goalkeepers on the planet.
The bigger concern is fitness. Lukaku made just seven appearances all season because of recurring muscle injuries and had not started a match for Napoli — yet he was still selected, and the Croatia send-off goal will have eased some nerves in the camp. Garcia also took a chance on Sporting defender Zeno Debast, who picked up a knock in training and was a doubt to be fit in time. With Jeremy Doku providing width and pace, and the squad otherwise blessed with depth across midfield and defence, Belgium remain the clear favourites in this group — Opta's supercomputer gives them an 89.6% chance to advance and a 51.9% chance of topping the section.
Garcia has built his squad around three players in their mid-thirties who have, between them, played a combined handful of matches at full fitness this season. If Lukaku breaks down again or De Bruyne's legs finally catch up with his footballing brain, Belgium's Plan B is considerably less convincing than their Plan A. The golden generation's "one final shot" narrative has been told before — and it has ended in disappointment more often than triumph.
SALAH NAMED CAPTAIN — TWO GOALS FROM THE RECORD: Mohamed Salah will captain Egypt at the World Cup and arrives sitting just two goals behind Hossam Hassan's all-time Egyptian scoring record of 69 — a record held by his own head coach. Salah suffered a hamstring strain earlier in the year that required a spell of treatment, but has since returned to full training and was simply eased back gradually, arriving at camp slightly later than his teammates.
Egypt have been knocking on the door of a first-ever World Cup knockout-stage appearance for decades, and Hossam Hassan's squad — built around the irrepressible Mohamed Salah — believes this is finally the moment. Salah will combine in attack with Manchester City's Omar Marmoush, giving Egypt a front line with genuine Premier League pedigree and the kind of pace that can hurt a Belgian defence missing some of its old sharpness.
The squad selection brought one notable surprise: Nantes forward Mostafa Mohamed was left out of the preliminary group, while uncapped teenager Hamza Abdelkarim — on Barcelona's books at U19 level — earned a place, a sign Hassan is willing to blend in fresh talent around his captain. Egypt's draw — Belgium, Iran, and New Zealand — is, on paper, the most realistic group-stage path Egyptian football has ever been handed. Opta gives them a 68.2% chance of advancing.
Egypt have been here before — close enough to taste it, never quite getting through. Salah arrived at camp later than his teammates after his recent injury layoff, and any flicker of fitness doubt around their captain undermines the entire structure Hassan has built. Egypt without a fully sharp Salah is a considerably more ordinary side. The hopes of 110 million people are resting on one man's hamstring.
AZMOUN LEFT OUT — DISCIPLINARY ROW: Sardar Azmoun, Iran's second-highest scorer in history with 57 international goals, was omitted from the final squad despite a public plea from the country's Vice President for his recall. Local reports suggest Azmoun was effectively expelled from the national set-up over a perceived act of disloyalty to the federation. It is a significant loss of a proven goal threat — and a genuine internal-politics storyline hanging over the squad.
Amir Ghalenoei's Iran are built squarely around the experience of Mehdi Taremi, who will play in his third World Cup at 33 years old and arrives off the back of a 10-goal qualifying campaign for Olympiacos. Taremi remains the focal point of everything Iran try to do in the final third, supported by the experienced Alireza Jahanbakhsh.
The draw has been kind in one respect — Iran face New Zealand, the lowest-ranked team at the tournament, on Matchday 1, and a win there could be the platform for a genuine push toward the knockout rounds for the first time in the country's history. Opta gives Iran a 64.3% chance of advancing, with little separating them from Egypt in the group's "second favourite" tier. The Azmoun saga, though, lingers as a distraction the squad did not need heading into the biggest tournament of the cycle.
Losing a 57-goal international striker to an off-field political dispute on the eve of a World Cup is the kind of distraction that can fracture a dressing room. Iran also now lack a credible alternative source of goals if Taremi has an off night or is shut down by Belgium's defence. The tactical issue is solvable. Whether the squad can fully set aside the Azmoun saga before kickoff is the more important question — and not one that shows up on a team sheet.
New Zealand arrive at their first World Cup since 2010 having claimed Oceania's historic first-ever direct qualification berth — no longer needing to survive the inter-confederation play-off lottery that defined past campaigns. Ranked 85th in the world — comfortably the lowest of the 48 finalists — the All Whites are everyone's pick to finish bottom of Group G. They will not be intimidated by that label; they have spent a decade building toward exactly this stage.
Captain Chris Wood is the squad's undisputed focal point — a proven Premier League finisher who scored nine goals in qualifying (more than double the next-best New Zealand scorer) and netted 20 times for Nottingham Forest in the league last season. Around him, Matthew Garbett, Sarpreet Singh, and Ben Waine provide midfield craft and secondary attacking threat, while the full-back pairing of Tyler Bindon (Sheffield United) and Liberato Cacace (Wrexham) gives Bazeley a platform to defend deep and break with purpose. Goalkeeper Max Crocombe is expected to start ahead of backup Alex Paulsen.
New Zealand are, on paper, comfortably the weakest side in the entire tournament field, and Opta's supercomputer eliminates them in the group stage in 52.2% of its 25,000 simulations — the highest such figure of any team here. Beyond Wood, there simply isn't another consistent source of goals. The Galáctico expects pride, organisation, and at least one moment that New Zealand football will talk about for a generation. A point would be a triumph. Two would be a miracle.
Group G Schedule
| Date | Match | Venue | BST |
|---|---|---|---|
Jun 15 |
🇧🇪 Belgium vs Egypt 🇪🇬 DE BRUYNE VS SALAH |
Lumen Field, Seattle |
23:00 |
Jun 15 |
🇮🇷 Iran vs New Zealand 🇳🇿 |
SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles |
TBC |
Jun 21 |
🇧🇪 Belgium vs Iran 🇮🇷 |
SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles |
TBC |
Jun 21 |
🇪🇬 Egypt vs New Zealand 🇳🇿 |
TBC |
TBC |
Jun 26 |
🇪🇬 Egypt vs Iran 🇮🇷 GROUP G DECIDER |
Lumen Field, Seattle |
TBC |
Jun 26 |
🇧🇪 Belgium vs New Zealand 🇳🇿 |
BC Place, Vancouver |
TBC |
By Matchday 3, Belgium will likely have already secured top spot. This is the match that decides which nation finally breaks its World Cup group-stage curse: Egypt, with Salah closing in on history, against Iran, still seeking their maiden knockout appearance after losing Azmoun to off-field controversy. Two proven number nines — Marmoush feeding off Salah, Taremi leading Iran's line — going head to head with a place in the Round of 32 on the line. The Galáctico expects this one to go to the final whistle, and possibly final minute.
Predicted Final Standings
| Pos | Team | W | D | L | GD | Pts | xPTS | Qual% | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇧🇪 Belgium | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 | 7 | 90% | ✅ Through |
| 2 | 🇪🇬 Egypt | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 6 | 68% | ✅ Through |
| 3 | 🇮🇷 Iran | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 45% | ⚠️ Best 3rd Possible |
| 4 | 🇳🇿 New Zealand | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 1 | 5% | ❌ Going Home |
This Is Genuinely Belgium's Last Dance — And They Know It. De Bruyne, Courtois, and Lukaku are all in their thirties, all carrying the weight of a golden generation that never quite delivered the trophy their talent promised. If this Belgium side doesn't make a real run in 2026, it never will — and everyone in that dressing room knows it. That kind of urgency can be devastating in a group stage.
Salah's Hamstring Is the Single Most Important Injury Story in Group G. Egypt's entire campaign — and arguably their best-ever shot at history — runs through one man's body holding up. He arrived at camp late after his recent layoff. Watch his sprint speed in the warm-up against Belgium. It will tell you more about Egypt's group-stage chances than any tactical analysis could.
New Zealand Are Going to Surprise Somebody — Just Not Enough Times. Chris Wood is a proven Premier League goalscorer, and the All Whites have spent a decade building toward this exact stage. The Galáctico predicts at least one moment of pure chaos from the lowest-ranked team in the tournament — probably against Iran, probably in the final ten minutes, probably unforgettable.
