Matchweek 5

Friday night football. The GTECH Community Stadium. And the Couch is opening Matchweek Five with its boldest (craziest?) call of the season so far — Brentford to beat Chelsea. Let the Couch explain himself.

Chelsea’s Matchweek Four was a collective lesson in what happens when your defence switches off for a bit. Charly Belloumi — a Hull City winger who had not been on a single person’s radar before that match — scored twice. The first came from a Ryan Giles cross that Hato misjudged catastrophically. The second was a deflected shot that spun past the goalkeeper as if on purpose. Chelsea drew 2–2 at Stamford Bridge with a team that just got promoted from the Championship. The JP Morgan front line still dazzles, but if you can find the space behind Chelsea’s fullbacks, you can hurt them. And Keith Andrews’ Brentford know exactly how to do that.

Brentford have been quietly excellent this season. Six points from four games — a win and three draws, including a gutsy 2–2 at Bournemouth in Matchweek Four which was quite the contest. Vitaly Janelt is the engine in midfield, covering ground, breaking up play, and arriving late into the box at exactly the wrong moment for opposition goalkeepers. Nathan Collins has been commanding at centre-back. And up front, Kevin Schade has had quite the start to the Premier League season, scoring the brace against Bournemouth to get the Bees a draw. And then there’s the GTECH — one of the noisiest, most uncomfortable grounds in the division for big clubs visiting on a Friday night.

Chelsea will have João Pedro, Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers — each one capable of winning any game on their own — and the Couch is not pretending otherwise. But Chelsea also concede goals. They concede to teams far less dangerous than Brentford. And a Friday night fixture, with the international break looming, does not suit a Chelsea side that thrives on the energy of a full Stamford Bridge crowd.

The Couch picks Brentford 3–2. An absolute Friday night classic. Brentford’s pressing football suffocates Chelsea in spells; Palmer pulls one back; Brentford hold on for a famous win.

Three hundred and sixty Premier League minutes. Zero goals scored. The Tottenham goalscoring drought is now the most discussed non-event in English football — the Carabao Cup game against Liverpool should give them some hope — despite the 3–1 loss, Spurs actually scored a goal — yes, a ball into the back of the net. So they actually know how to do it. So far — the intensity has been there in patches, the movement patterns are there, also in patches, but the final product has been MIA — but De Zerbi is confident his system will click. The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium crowd is another matter though — how long will their patience hold?

And then there is Aston Villa. Unai Emery’s side — European giant-killers, Champions League participants, genuinely feared on the continent — have just one point from four Premier League games. One. They have scored one goal. And have conceded a lot more. Villa Park, which roared so loudly when Villa clinched European football for a third consecutive season last May, has gone very quiet very fast. But Villa fans have faith that Unai Emery will turn it around. Because he has done that in the past. The question is, when will they start questioning their faith?

On paper, this fixture pits the seventeenth versus the nineteenth placed teams on the Premier League table. On the ground, it could be two storied clubs trying to rediscover themselves simultaneously, trying to play their way out of this funk — or perhaps it may turn out to be two sides that just cannot score facing each other for ninety minutes of a snoozefest. The Couch believes it is the former. Tottenham are at home. The crowd will get behind them from the first whistle. De Zerbi’s system will eventually unlock something, and against a Villa side that has been remarkably porous, this is the most likely opportunity for it to happen.

The brand new signings for Spurs will finally break through — the Couch sees Marmoush or Savio scoring, and the Tottenham crowd rediscovering the sensation of cheering for a goal. Villa’s defensive fragility — seven goals conceded in four games — will just about prove to be the gift Tottenham need to finally get off the mark.

The Couch picks Tottenham 2–1. The drought ends. Not in a beautiful, clinical way — expect a scrappy own goal and a set piece conversion — but it ends. Villa get one back but cannot find an equaliser. Spurs move off the bottom of the table. For now.

Four games. Four wins. Just one goal conceded. Twelve points. Arsenal sit at the very top of the Premier League table with a perfect record, and they are heading to the one ground in England where they are least comfortable: the Amex Stadium.

Brighton under Fabian Hürzeler are exactly the kind of team that can end a perfect start. They are not a side that sits deep and hopes. They press, they counter-press, they play through the lines, and they have the individual quality to punish any mistake. Their Matchweek Four was a statement — a 5–0 demolition of Coventry that, scoreline aside, flattered Coventry somewhat, as Brighton created opportunity after opportunity and only stopped at five because they felt like it. The Amex is a cauldron of noise when Brighton are clicking, and right now Brighton are clicking.

David Raya has been exceptional for Arsenal — a three-time Golden Glove winner who has barely been tested this season because the structure in front of him has been so good. Martin Ødegaard is orchestrating from deep and driving Arsenal forward with the kind of confidence that only comes from winning every match you play. Bukayo Saka and Havertz have had a positive start to the season, combining well with their captain to create a potent forward line. And then there is Bruno — after his first goal for Arsenal last week at the Stadium of Light, he is ready to explode, and this might just be another setting tailor-made for him.

Arsenal will not be complacent. Arteta does not allow complacency. But Brighton will make them work for everything — every pass, every combination, every line break. This is a 90-minute examination of whether Arsenal’s perfect start reflects who they actually are, or whether there has been a degree of good fortune baked into four wins.

The Couch thinks Arsenal are the real deal and picks them to win 3–1. Brighton will get one back from a sequence of pure magic — this stadium and this crowd will make sure of it — but Arsenal’s quality is sufficient to prevail. Five games, five wins. The title race starts here.

In the Andoni Iraola Derby, the Couch is picking Bournemouth to upset Liverpool. There. It is written. It cannot be unwritten.

Liverpool, despite being unbeaten, have six points from four games — they have been a “Draw” machine, with three draws out of four. Andoni Iraola’s system has not clicked the way everyone expected. Not yet, anyway. Anfield seems to have lost its mystique. The performances have had moments — Alexander Isak’s two-goal game at Portman Road, Wirtz beginning to find his feet, Bradley Barcola showing flashes of what he is capable of — but Liverpool have been inconsistent, conceded in games they should have controlled, and travel to Bournemouth with questions still unanswered about their defensive structure and whether this squad has truly found its rhythm.

Marco Rose’s Bournemouth are the real deal. Despite being fifteenth on the table with only three points, they have had a chance to win each one of their games, including away at City. And they should have a massive boost after a winning start to their first ever European campaign — with a Europa League win away at Real Sociedad. And then they have their fortress. The Vitality Stadium is one of the trickiest away days in the Premier League, particularly for sides that want to control the game and build from the back. Bournemouth press aggressively, transition quickly, and have the kind of directional, vertical football that can disorient a Liverpool side that likes to dominate possession. Tavernier, Evanilson and Rayan are beginning to click like a well-oiled machine. Alex Scott has been phenomenal creating chances. And they have been able to cope reasonably with the injury to Kroupi to start the season. Bournemouth’s goalkeeper has also made some excellent saves this season — they will need to continue that here.

The Couch picks Bournemouth 2–1. Liverpool create the better chances overall but cannot convert. Bournemouth take their opportunity when it arrives. Iraola loses to his former club — the monster he created. The Couch takes a deep breath and stands by this pick completely.

Manchester City have twelve points from four games. They are joint-top with Arsenal. They have won every match. The VAR derby win — controversial, incendiary, maddening for United supporters everywhere — simply added three more points to a tally that already looked imperious. Erling Haaland has four goals. Cherki continues to weave his magic. And Enzo Maresca’s brand new midfield is beginning to gel together.

Sunderland lost 2–0 at the Stadium of Light in Matchweek Four. They ran hard, defended deep, and were undone by Arsenal’s quality in the second half. But after that, they won their first European game in fifty-three years at home — and surely, that will perk them up, getting them ready for this big game. Despite their solidity across the pitch, this team may not have the depth to be able to truly hurt Manchester City at the Etihad.

City at home is confident — the start to the Maresca era has been almost perfect. The Etihad crowd is loud; the team’s movement is instinctive; and Haaland positions himself at the edge of the box for exactly the kind of crosses that City’s wingers deliver twelve times a game. Sunderland will compress and try to limit space, but City are too good at finding it. Haaland will be hungry after scoring only once in MW4. Enzo Fernández — who has fit in like a glove since he joined a couple of weeks back — adds so much more unpredictability to the attack that can keep Sunderland at bay.

The Couch picks Man City 2–1. Sunderland make it interesting, which is admirable, and get a goal. But City get the job done. Twelve points becomes fifteen. They remain on par with Arsenal at the top of the table.

Manchester United are furious. The VAR decision that gave City a 1–0 derby win — a goal that should not have stood, from a corner that should not have been given, off a foul that Bruno Fernández was milking theatrically but which the referee did not have to give — has left Old Trafford seething. The players are seething. The fans are seething. The anger is legitimate. But anger does not win football matches, and Manchester United have four points from four games, sitting thirteenth in the table.

After the VAR disaster, United came out flying in the mid-week Carabao Cup game against Brighton with a quick 2–0 lead in the first half. Despite that, they completely blew it — getting outplayed by Brighton for the rest of the game, ultimately losing 2–3, but the score could well have been 2–5. The murmurs about Carrick are beginning to get louder, after the VAR debacle, the Brighton loss, and the fact that United have just four points from four games in a season where they were expected to figure in the top four, if not vie for the title outright.

Fulham have one point from four games. That one point came from a goalless draw at Anfield — which suggests they can organise, can defend, can absorb pressure, and be dangerous when they are the underdogs. Álvaro Arbeloa’s side has been unlucky in places, unfortunate in others, but ultimately sits near the bottom of the table and cannot afford to drop more points at Craven Cottage.

The narrative here is interesting: two sides in need of a win, with very different contexts. United are emotionally charged and playing away. Fulham are at home and desperate. These are exactly the conditions that produce draws — lots of intensity, the desperate need to score, and perhaps room for that inevitable mistake that will result in goals the other way. The Couch sees a result that leaves both managers quietly frustrated.

Gonzálo García, Fulham’s most creative outlet, will try to find space between United’s midfield and defence. United will press high in response to their derby frustration and create their own chances. But the Couch sees this going down to the wire with the points shared.

The Couch picks Fulham 2–2. United go ahead, Fulham level, United retake the lead, and think they have won it. But Fulham nick one late, and Craven Cottage erupts. Both sets of players walk off simultaneously relieved and frustrated. The international break cannot come soon enough for either dressing room.